Projections indicate a decline in breast cancer mortality rates across all age groups in the European Union and the United Kingdom by 2025, with a notable exception for EU patients aged 80 and above, where an increase of nearly 10% is anticipated.
In contrast, the UK is expected to see a 7% reduction in breast cancer death rates for those aged 80 and older, compared to the period from 2015 to 2019. Spain is also projected to experience a 4% decrease in mortality for this demographic.
These findings are derived from a recent study forecasting cancer death rates in the EU and UK for 2025. The study suggests that the rise in mortality among older EU patients may be due to less frequent screening and limited access to advanced treatments.
According to Professor Carlo La Vecchia from the University of Milan, elderly women are not reaping the full benefits of advancements in breast cancer treatment, such as enhanced chemotherapy, hormone therapy, and surgical techniques. Additionally, the increasing prevalence of obesity in Europe has elevated breast cancer risk, particularly among the elderly, where improved management has not kept pace.
Trends Among Younger Women
For women aged 20 to 49, who are also not regularly screened, death rates are expected to decline by approximately 7% in the EU and nearly 15% in the UK, compared to statistics from 2015-2019.
Overall, breast cancer mortality is projected to decrease by 4% in the EU and 6% in the UK by 2025. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in the EU is anticipated to be 13.3 deaths per 100,000 women, and 13.2 per 100,000 in the UK.
Country-Specific Predictions
Germany is expected to achieve a 14% reduction in breast cancer death rates, the UK 10%, Poland 9%, and both France and Spain 8%. Italy anticipates a 2% decrease. However, the EU will see an increase in mortality rates among women aged 80 and over, with Spain as an exception.
Professor La Vecchia estimates that between 1989 and 2025, 373,000 breast cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 197,000 in the UK, largely due to improved management and therapy, with 25-30% attributed to widespread screening and early diagnosis.
Broader Cancer Mortality Trends
The study also examined cancer death rates across various types and demographics. In the EU, a 3.5% reduction in age-standardized death rates for all cancers is expected for men, and a 1% decrease for women by 2025. In the UK, the death rate for all cancers is projected to fall by 10% for men and 6% for women.
Despite these declines, the actual number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to an aging population. In the EU, cancer deaths among men are projected to increase from 671,963 in 2020 to 709,400 in 2025, and from 537,866 to 570,500 for women. In the UK, deaths are expected to rise from 91,239 to 92,200 for men and from 80,378 to 81,100 for women.
Challenges and Concerns
While most cancer death rates are predicted to fall, pancreatic cancer is expected to rise by 2% in men and 3% in women in the EU. Lung cancer in women is also expected to increase by nearly 4%, and bladder cancer by nearly 2%.
In the UK, bowel cancer in women and uterine cancer are the only rates expected to rise, both by less than 1%. Smoking remains a major cause of pancreatic cancer, accounting for up to 35% of cases, with obesity and metabolic syndrome also contributing to the risk.
Professor Eva Negri emphasizes the importance of controlling smoking to manage pancreatic cancer risk. The study estimates that between 1988 and 2025, 6.8 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.5 million in the UK due to advancements in treatment and prevention.
Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer deaths among men in both the EU and the UK, and among women in the UK. In the EU, breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths among women, though lung cancer death rates are rising.
Professor La Vecchia concludes that while cancer mortality trends are generally favorable, there are concerning increases in bowel cancer among younger populations and persistent challenges in reducing pancreatic and lung cancer deaths, highlighting the need for continued public health efforts.